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Preventable cancer cases and deaths attributable to tobacco smoking in Korea from 2015 to 2030
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Soseul Sung, Jihye An, Jeehi Jung, Hyeon Sook Lee, Sungji Moon, Inah Kim, Jung Eun Lee, Aesun Shin, Sun Ha Jee, Sun-Seog Kweon, Min-Ho Shin, Sangmin Park, Seungho Ryu, Sun Young Yang, Seung Ho Choi, Jeongseon Kim, Sang-Wook Yi, Yoon-Jung Choi, Youjin Hong, Sangjun Lee, Woojin Lim, Kyungsik Kim, Daehee Kang, Keun-Young Yoo, Sohee Park, Jeong-Soo Im, Hong Gwan Seo, Hai-Rim Shin, Kwang-Pil Ko, Sue K. Park
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Epidemiol Health. 2025;47:e2025008. Published online February 27, 2025
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2025008
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 Abstract
Summary
 PDF Supplementary Material
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Tobacco smoking is a major public health concern worldwide. This study aimed to assess its impact on cancer incidence and mortality by estimating the population attributable fraction (PAF) in the Korean population for 2015 and 2020 and by projecting future trends until 2030.
METHODS The Korean relative risk (RR) was calculated via a meta–analysis of RRs for individual cancers attributed to tobacco smoking, based on primary data analysis from the Korean Cohort Consortium. The PAF was estimated using the Levin formula with past and current prevalence rates and the number of cancer cases and deaths, assuming a 15-year latency period.
RESULTS The proportions of cancer cases and deaths in Korea attributable to tobacco smoking were similar to those calculated using Asian and global RRs for both male and female. In 2015 and 2020, tobacco smoking contributed to 14.32% and 13.17% of cancer cases and 21.70% and 20.69% of cancer deaths in adults, respectively. Among Koreans, smoking was responsible for 25.83% of new cancer cases in male in 2015, 23.49% in male in 2020, 1.46% in female in 2015, and 1.68% in female in 2020. In both years, smoking impacted mortality more strongly than incidence in Korean male and female (incidence in male: 25.83% and 23.49%; mortality in male: 32.09% and 30.41%; incidence in female: 1.46% and 1.68%; and mortality in female: 4.70% and 4.96%, respectively).
CONCLUSIONS Tobacco smoking causes cancers and deaths in Korea, however, it is preventable. Effective control policies that consider trends and vulnerabilities among female are required.
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Summary
Korean summary
한국에서 흡연으로 인한 암 부담은 2015년 발생 14.32%, 사망 21.70%였고 2020년에는 발생 13.17%, 사망 20.69%로 나타남. 두 해 모두 남성에서 부담이 훨씬 컸음(남성: 발생 2015년 25.83%, 2020년 23.49%; 사망 2015년 32.09%, 2020년 30.41% / 여성: 발생 2015년 1.46%, 2020년 1.68%; 사망 2015년 4.70%, 2020년 4.96%). 흡연은 예방 가능한 주요 원인이므로, 여성의 취약성과 추세를 고려한 보다 강력한 금연·규제 정책 강화가 필요함.
Key Message
In Korea, tobacco smoking accounted for 14.32% of incident cancers and 21.70% of cancer deaths in 2015, and 13.17% of incidence and 20.69% of mortality in 2020. The burden was much greater in men than in women in both years (men: incidence 25.83% in 2015 and 23.49% in 2020; mortality 32.09% in 2015 and 30.41% in 2020; women: incidence 1.46% in 2015 and 1.68% in 2020; mortality 4.70% in 2015 and 4.96% in 2020). Smoking remains a preventable driver of substantial cancer incidence and mortality, calling for stronger control policies that also address emerging vulnerabilities among women.
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Preventable cancer cases and deaths attributable to alcohol consumption in Korea from 2015 to 2030
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Soseul Sung, Jihye An, Jeehi Jung, Hyeon Sook Lee, Sungji Moon, Inah Kim, Jung Eun Lee, Aesun Shin, Sun Ha Jee, Sun-Seog Kweon, Min-Ho Shin, Sangmin Park, Seungho Ryu, Sun Young Yang, Seung Ho Choi, Jeongseon Kim, Sang-Wook Yi, Yoon-Jung Choi, Youjin Hong, Sangjun Lee, Woojin Lim, Kyungsik Kim, Sohee Park, Jeong-Soo Im, Hong Gwan Seo, Kwang-Pil Ko, Sue K. Park
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Epidemiol Health. 2025;47:e2025009. Published online February 27, 2025
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2025009
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Abstract
Summary
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Alcohol consumption is causally linked to several cancers, and major health organizations classify it as a carcinogen. This study assessed the impact of alcohol consumption on cancer incidence and mortality in Korea in 2015 and 2020, projected trends up to 2030, and compared results based on different criteria.
METHODS The relative risk of cancer associated with alcohol consumption in Korea was determined through a meta-analysis of alcohol-related relative risks for specific cancers, using primary data from the Korean Cohort Study within the Korean Cohort Consortium. The population-attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated using Levin’s formula, incorporating drinking prevalence and the number of cancer cases and deaths, with a 15-year latency period assumed.
RESULTS In Korea, the PAF for alcohol consumption, based on ever/never drinking criteria, was higher than that calculated using other criteria, except for the PAF based on past and current/never drinking criteria. Alcohol consumption contributed to 3.58% of all cancer cases and 3.28% of cancer deaths in 2015. It accounted for 4.58% of new cancer cases in male and 2.08% in female, with a higher contribution to incidence than mortality (4.00 and 2.25% of cancer deaths in male and female, respectively). Projections indicate that alcohol-related cancer PAF will decrease by 17.2% in male but increase by 70.2% in female by 2030.
CONCLUSIONS This study highlights the impact of alcohol consumption on cancer in Korea, emphasizing the need for sex-specific regulations to address sex differences.
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Summary
Korean summary
2015년 알콜 섭취는 한국에서 전체 암 발생의 3.58%, 암 사망의 3.28%를 차지했으며, 남성(4.58%)이 여성(2.08%)보다 더 큰 영향을 받았음. 2030년까지 남성의 알콜 관련 암 발생률은 감소할 것으로 예상되지만, 여성에서는 급증할 것으로 보임. 이러한 결과는 특히 여성에서 증가하는 추세를 반영하여 성별 맞춤형 공공 보건 정책의 필요성을 시사함.
Key Message
In 2015, alcohol consumption was responsible for 3.58% of all cancer cases and 3.28% of cancer deaths in Korea, with a more significant impact on males (4.58% of new cases) than females (2.08%). Projections indicate a decrease in alcohol-related cancer cases among males but a sharp increase in females by 2030. These findings highlight the need for sex-specific public health measures to address the growing impact of alcohol on cancer, particularly the increasing trend in female cases.
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Preventable cancer cases and deaths attributable to deficit of physical activity in Korea from 2015 to 2030
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Soseul Sung, Sungji Moon, Jihye An, Jeehi Jung, Hyeon Sook Lee, Youjin Hong, Sangjun Lee, Woojin Lim, Kyungsik Kim, Inah Kim, Jung Eun Lee, Sun Ha Jee, Aesun Shin, Ji-Yeob Choi, Sun-Seog Kweon, Min-Ho Shin, Sangmin Park, Seungho Ryu, Sun Young Yang, Seung Ho Choi, Jeongseon Kim, Sang-Wook Yi, Yoon-Jung Choi, Jeong-Soo Im, Hong Gwan Seo, Sohee Park, Kwang-Pil Ko, Sue K. Park
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Epidemiol Health. 2025;47:e2025010. Published online January 27, 2025
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2025010
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Abstract
Summary
PDFSupplementary Material
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This study aimed to determine the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of cancers using various calculation methods and to estimate the PAFs of cancer incidence and mortality resulting from deficit in physical activity (DPA) from 2015 to 2030, based on data on prevalence rates.
METHODS The PAF of cancer was estimated using a cohort study-based meta-analysis of relative risk (RR), national prevalence rates of DPA from 2000 to 2015, and national cancer statistics from 2015 to 2030, with a latency of 15 years.
RESULTS In 2015, DPA contributed to 909 cancer cases and 548 deaths, accounting for 0.42% and 0.68% of new cancer cases and deaths, respectively. By 2030, the PAF values are expected to increase to 1.31% of incidence and 1.80% of mortality, with a continual increase from 2015 to 2030. When the low metabolic equivalent of task (MET) criteria were selected, the PAF values decreased for both incidence and mortality. The PAF calculated with <900 MET-min/wk for the sex-specific MET criterion was higher than that calculated with <900 MET-min/wk for both incidence and mortality.
CONCLUSIONS The risk of cancer associated with DPA is expected to rise in both male and female. Future research and strategies should emphasize the promotion of physical activity for cancer prevention, considering its significant implications for public health.
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Summary
Korean summary
2015년 신체활동 부족(deficit in physical activity, DPA)에 의한 인구집단기여분율(population-attributable fraction, PAF)은 암 발생 0.42%(909건), 암 사망 0.68%(548건)였으며 2030년에는 각각 1.31%, 1.80%로 증가할 것으로 예측됨. 남녀 모두에서 DPA로 인한 암 부담이 증가하고 있으므로, 암 예방을 위한 신체활동 증진 전략을 강화할 필요가 있음.
Key Message
In 2015, deficit in physical activity (DPA) accounted for 0.42% of incident cancers (909 cases) and 0.68% of cancer deaths (548 deaths), with population-attributable fraction (PAF) values projected to rise to 1.31% for incidence and 1.80% for mortality by 2030. The cancer burden attributable to DPA is increasing in both sexes, underscoring the need to strengthen population-level physical-activity promotion for prevention.
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