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Risk factors for Q fever incidence in South Korea: a comparative analysis using frequentist and Bayesian methods
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Ji-hyun Son, Sung-dae Park
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Epidemiol Health. 2025;e2025046. Published online August 20, 2025
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2025046
[Accepted]
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 Abstract
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This study investigated the principal determinants of human Q fever incidence and explored regional variation between metropolitan cities and provinces in South Korea.
METHODS
Panel data on human Q fever incidence, livestock populations, and facility metrics were collected across 17 metropolitan cities and provinces from 2017 to 2024. Analytical approaches included frequentist models (ordinary least squares [OLS], random effects, fixed effects) and Bayesian models.
RESULTS
Frequentist panel analysis indicated that slaughterhouse count was positively associated with Q fever incidence in both pooled OLS (β=1.20, p<0.001) and random effects models (β=1.03, p<0.001), but not in the fixed effects model (β=0.14, p=0.65). After correcting for serial correlation using Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, livestock population (β=0.55, p<0.01), livestock market count (β=–2.01, p<0.05), and livestock Q fever cases (β=–0.11, p<0.01) were significantly associated with human incidence. A Bayesian fixed effects model confirmed a significant relationship between slaughterhouses and human Q fever incidence (posterior mean: 0.87, 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.21-1.42), providing more stable inference with limited samples and allowing probabilistic uncertainty estimation. A Bayesian hierarchical model revealed a stronger association in metropolitan cities (posterior mean, 1.46; 95% CrI, 0.34-2.57) than in provinces (1.22), while livestock population remained significant in provinces (0.94, 95% CrI, 0.15-1.74).
CONCLUSIONS
In South Korea, slaughterhouse density was the main determinant of Q fever in metropolitan areas and livestock density was the primary risk factor in provinces. These findings underscore the need for region-specific preventive strategies and reinforce the value of a One Health approach.
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